Risk Assessment
Evaluating risk pools before allocating capital
TL;DR: Every pool has a risk rating (AAA-C) that determines its point cost inside the syndicate's 20-point risk budget. Lower risk gives you more room, but concentration and mutex rules still matter.
Risk Ratings
Every risk pool is assigned a rating based on the protocol it covers, its audit history, TVL, and operational maturity.
| Rating | Point Cost | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ AAA | 1 | Battle-tested protocols (Aave, Compound). Multiple audits, years of operation, high TVL |
| ✅ AA | 2 | Well-established protocols with strong track records |
| ⚠️ A | 3 | Solid protocols with some operational history |
| ⚠️ BBB | 4 | Mid-tier protocols, newer or less audited |
| 🚨 BB | 5 | Higher risk, limited audit coverage |
| 🚨 B | 6 | Elevated risk, emerging protocols |
| 🚨 C | 7 | Highest point cost and the tightest budget impact |
Evaluating a Pool
Before allocating capital, assess these dimensions:
1. Protocol Security
- Audit count - How many independent audits has the covered protocol completed?
- Bug bounty - Is there an active bug bounty program?
- Incident history - Has the protocol been exploited before?
- Code maturity - How long has the code been deployed without changes?
2. Pool Economics
- Premium rate - What APR are policyholders paying?
- Utilisation - What percentage of the pool's capacity is currently backing active policies?
- Term distribution - Are policies short-term (30d) or long-term (90d)?
3. Correlation Risk
- Mutex groups - Is this pool correlated with other pools you're already backing?
- Asset correlation - Does the covered asset share smart contract risk with your other allocations?
Watch for correlation. Backing three pools that all cover Aave products looks diversified but is really concentrated on one smart contract risk. In the live system, mutex groups are exclusive: a syndicate cannot allocate to multiple pools in the same group.
Risk Budget
Each syndicate has 20 total risk points. Every allocation consumes points proportional to the pool's rating and the size of the pledge relative to syndicate principal:
The budget is only one constraint. The protocol also applies a concentration-based leverage ladder, with an initial configured max of 3x at launch. A syndicate can be under its point budget and still hit its leverage ceiling if one pool becomes too large.
Budget Optimisation Strategy
| Strategy | Pool Mix | Total Leverage | Risk Profile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Mostly AAA/AA pools with low concentration | 1.0-2.0x | Lower premium, more headroom |
| Balanced | Mix of AAA, A, BBB across independent pools | 1.5-2.5x | Moderate premium, moderate risk |
| Aggressive | Heavier BBB/BB mix or concentrated books | up to 3.0x at launch, often less in practice | Higher premium, tighter limits |
Monitoring Active Allocations
After allocating, continue monitoring:
- Incident reports - Are any of your pools under investigation?
- Premium inflow - Are policies being purchased against your pools?
- Risk rating changes - Has the protocol been re-rated?
- Capacity utilisation - Is the pool nearing capacity limits?